Over the years, the U.S. military has been progressively incorporating AI technology, but it’s only within the last decade that they have fully embraced groundbreaking advancements in artificial intelligence, which are poised to fundamentally transform the landscape of warfare.
The U.S. military already utilizes artificial intelligence to operate small surveillance drones in special operations missions which has assisted Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. AI is also employed to monitor soldiers’ fitness, anticipate maintenance needs for Air Force planes, and conduct surveillance on adversaries in space.
Now, the Pentagon is determined to deploy several thousand reasonably priced, disposable AI-powered autonomous vehicles by 2026 to match China’s advancements. The ambitious project, named Replicator, aims to “galvanize progress in the too-slow shift of U.S. military innovation to leverage platforms that are small, smart, cheap, and many,” as stated by Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks in August.
Despite uncertainties surrounding its funding and with vague details, Replicator is anticipated to expedite the decision-making process on mature and reliable AI technologies suitable for deployment, even in weaponized systems.
There is minimal disagreement among scientists, industry experts, and Pentagon officials that the U.S. will possess fully autonomous lethal weapons in the next few years. Despite officials asserting that humans will maintain control, experts argue that advancements in data-processing speed and machine-to-machine communications will inevitably shift people into supervisory roles.
This is particularly evident if, as anticipated, lethal weapons are extensively deployed in drone swarms. Numerous countries, including China, Russia, Iran, India, and Pakistan, are actively developing such technologies, and none of them have endorsed a U.S.-initiated commitment to responsibly use military AI.
It remains uncertain whether the Pentagon is presently conducting a formal evaluation of any fully autonomous lethal weapons system for deployment, as mandated by a 2012 directive. A spokesperson for the Pentagon declined to provide information on the matter.
Replicator showcases significant technological and personnel challenges in Pentagon procurement and development, as the AI revolution pledges to reshape the dynamics of warfare.
According to Gregory Allen, a former top Pentagon AI official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank; “The Department of Defense is struggling to adopt the AI developments from the last machine-learning breakthrough.”
The Pentagon’s portfolio includes over 800 unclassified AI-related projects, many of which are still in the testing phase. Generally, machine learning and neural networks play a crucial role in aiding humans to gain insights and enhance operational efficiencies.
“The AI that we’ve got in the Department of Defense right now is heavily leveraged and augments people […] There’s no AI running around on its own. People are using it to try to understand the fog of war better,” said Missy Cummings, director of George Mason University’s robotics center and a former Navy fighter pilot.
In the realm of space, AI-assisted tools are actively monitoring potential threats, marking the latest frontier in military competition.
Lisa Costa, the Chief Technology and Innovation Officer of the U.S. Space Force, revealed that China has plans to utilize AI, including on satellites, to autonomously determine friend or foe. The U.S. is striving to match these developments.
In other areas, the predictive capabilities of AI assist the Air Force in maintaining the operational status of its fleet, forecasting the maintenance requirements for over 2,600 aircraft, including B-1 bombers and Blackhawk helicopters.
As part of health-related initiatives, there is a pilot project monitoring the fitness of the entire Third Infantry Division of the Army, comprising over 13,000 soldiers. Major Matt Visser stated that predictive modeling and AI contribute to the reduction of injuries and improvement in performance.
